Germany’s European Policy: Navigating Change and Asserting Leadership

Germany’s Shifting European Policy Landscape

The European policy environment for Germany is undergoing significant changes, necessitating a reorientation of its approach. The European Union (EU) is becoming increasingly crucial for Germany as a powerful collective entity that should be further developed into an economic and security ‘life insurance policy’ for Germany and other member states.

New Leadership Role for Germany

The coalition agreement between the CDU/CSU and SPD outlines a pragmatic leadership role for Germany in European policy. To achieve this, the new government must enhance European policy coordination through an expanded partnership strategy, strengthening the EU’s overall capacity to act.

Tectonic Changes in the EU’s Power Structure

The traditional Franco-German alliance, once the EU’s power core, has weakened due to several developments:

1. Rise of Eurosceptic Tendencies: Far-right or national sovereignist parties are now present in 24 out of 27 EU member states’ national parliaments.
2. New Dividing Lines: The war in Ukraine has created new security dynamics and coalitions, such as the north-eastern grouping focused on security policy.
3. Economic Shifts: Decarbonization, new technologies, and global trade conflicts have altered economic conditions, challenging Germany’s previous economic strength-based influence.

Thematic Partnerships for European Interests

Germany should adopt flexible, issue-based partnership strategies to advance its core interests:

• Enhance EU resilience and defence capabilities
• Strengthen economic competitiveness
• Secure trade interests
• Manage migration flows effectively

Strategic Formats for Cooperation

1. Weimar Plus Format: An informal grouping of European ‘heavyweights’ (Germany, France, Poland, Italy, Spain) plus the UK for security and defence policy coordination.
2. Economic Partnerships: Alliances with member states for competitiveness, such as with eastern central Europe, France, Italy, and innovation-driven northern European countries.
3. Migration Policy Stabilization: Germany should prioritize implementing existing migration management measures while pressuring other EU states to strictly apply EU law.

Strengthening EU Institutions and Coordination

1. Enhanced EU Policy Coordination: Regular ‘EU monitoring’ meetings among state secretaries to resolve interdepartmental conflicts.
2. Supporting the European Commission: While maintaining the Commission’s neutrality, Germany should work with it to prepare major decisions on key projects.
3. Empowering Key EU Roles: Support for the High Representative and President of the European Council in their external representation roles.

Recommendations for German European Policy

1. Assertive Leadership: Chancellor and ministers should maintain strong EU engagement and present unified positions.
2. Revised Partnership Strategy: Cultivate flexible coalitions like Weimar Plus and various economic partnerships.
3. Willingness to Move Beyond Unanimity: Prioritize the Community method with majority decisions where possible, such as in Capital Markets Union projects.

By adopting a pragmatic yet ambitious approach guided by strategic autonomy, Germany can transform the EU into a reliable ‘life insurance policy’ for its security and economic competitiveness.